The Least Understood Stat in Football

Turnovers are good, no? No.

Betting on sports can be counterintuitive in so many ways.

One of these is turnovers and how they affect handicapping a game, especially in football. Most fans think having a plus turnover ratio is a good thing.

And it is a good thing, for the games in which it has already happened. However, looking ahead from a betting perspective, the opposite is usually the case, all else being equal.

Let’s take an current example (as of this writing) in college football. Western Kentucky is at home against Troy, and currently sits as a 6-point favorite.

Both teams are 3-1 against the spread, with the lone loss coming as big favorites against lower-division teams.

It will be the high-flying offense of Western Kentucky against the tough defense of Troy. Who will prevail? I can’t say. (Depending on when you read this, you may already know the answer.)

I can tell you that, if forced to bet this game, I would take the Trojans. Why?

Because Western Kentucky sits at plus-6 in turnover margin, while Troy is at -1. Why does this stat favor Troy? For a couple of reasons.

First of all, some (not all) turnovers are just a matter of luck. Footballs can bounce in funny ways. A talented wide receiver may let a pass bounce off his hands and into the waiting arms of a defender. A fumbled snapped may bounce away from a quarterback… or right back into his gullet.

Second, teams that have been on the wrong end of turnovers are cognizant of it and spend more time working on correcting the problem in practice.

Turnovers sometimes disguise a team’s true strength, in both directions. A big edge in turnovers should be a red flag, and I don’t mean for a replay review.

By the way, the Troy-Western Kentucky game likely is a pass for me since the Trojans are coming off a big win over Marshall, the team that beat Notre Dame a week earlier.

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