Tag: NFL

NFL Power Ratings

10/12/2022 / / 555 Comments

As of 10/12/2022

NOTE: These are power rankings, the type used to create betting lines as you would see in a Vegas-style sportsbook. It is intended to be a numerical reflection of the strength of each time at the time of this writing.

It is not intended to be a ranking based on a team’s performance to date. When done correctly, rankings should tell you where a team sits by virtue of what it has already done. Power ratings tell you where they are at the moment. This information will be repeated until every human on earth understands it.

Buffalo continues to be far ahead of any other team. That lofty rating will be put to the test as the Bills face No, 2 Kansas City this Sunday.

1	Buffalo		-8
2	Kansas City	-4.5
2	Philadelphia	-4.5
4	San Francisco	-4
5	Baltimore	-3.5
6	Dallas		-3
7	Cincinnati	-2.5
7	Minnesota	-2.5
7	Tampa Bay	-2.5
10	LA Chargers	-2
11	LA Rams		-1
12	Green Bay	0
12	Las Vegas	0
12	New England	0
15	Tennessee	0.5
16	Cleveland	1
16	Denver		1
16	New Orleans	1
19	Arizona		1.5
20	Indianapolis	2
21	Atlanta		2.5
21	NY Giants	2.5
23	Jacksonville	3
23	Washington	3
25	Detroit		3.5
25	NY Jets		3.5
27	Miami		4
28	Carolina	5
28	Chicago		5
28	Houston		5
28	Pittsburgh	5
28	Seattle		5

NFL Power Ratings

09/28/2022 / / 110 Comments

As of 9/28/2022

NOTE: These are power rankings, the type used to create betting lines as you would see in a Vegas-style sportsbook. It is intended to be a numerical reflection of the strength of each time at the time of this writing.

It is not intended to be a ranking based on a team’s performance to date. When done correctly, rankings should tell you where a team sits by virtue of what it has already done. Power ratings tell you where they are at the moment. This information will be repeated until every human on earth understands it.

I feel more confident of my ratings than I have at any point (which should be the case with more games played), but there are still some doubts about certain teams (hello Jacksonville!).

Rk	Team		Pow
1	Buffalo		-7.5
2	Kansas City	-4
2	Philadelphia	-4
4	Green Bay	-3
4	Miami		-3
6	Cincinnati	-2.5
6	LA Rams		-2.5
8	Baltimore	-2
8	San Francisco	-2
10	LA Chargers	-1.5
10	Tampa Bay	-1.5
12	Minnesota	-1
13	Denver		0
13	Indianapolis	0
13	Las Vegas	0
16	Cleveland	1.5
16	Dallas		1.5
16	Tennessee	1.5
19	Jacksonville	2
19	New Orleans	2
21	Detroit		2.5
22	Arizona		3
23	Pittsburgh	3.5
24	Carolina	4
24	NY Giants	4
26	Atlanta		4.5
26	New England	4.5
26	Washington	4.5
29	Chicago		5
30	Seattle		6
31	Houston		6.5
31	NY Jets		6.5

The Least Understood Stat in Football

09/26/2022 / / 246 Comments

Turnovers are good, no? No.

Betting on sports can be counterintuitive in so many ways.

One of these is turnovers and how they affect handicapping a game, especially in football. Most fans think having a plus turnover ratio is a good thing.

And it is a good thing, for the games in which it has already happened. However, looking ahead from a betting perspective, the opposite is usually the case, all else being equal.

Let’s take an current example (as of this writing) in college football. Western Kentucky is at home against Troy, and currently sits as a 6-point favorite.

Both teams are 3-1 against the spread, with the lone loss coming as big favorites against lower-division teams.

It will be the high-flying offense of Western Kentucky against the tough defense of Troy. Who will prevail? I can’t say. (Depending on when you read this, you may already know the answer.)

I can tell you that, if forced to bet this game, I would take the Trojans. Why?

Because Western Kentucky sits at plus-6 in turnover margin, while Troy is at -1. Why does this stat favor Troy? For a couple of reasons.

First of all, some (not all) turnovers are just a matter of luck. Footballs can bounce in funny ways. A talented wide receiver may let a pass bounce off his hands and into the waiting arms of a defender. A fumbled snapped may bounce away from a quarterback… or right back into his gullet.

Second, teams that have been on the wrong end of turnovers are cognizant of it and spend more time working on correcting the problem in practice.

Turnovers sometimes disguise a team’s true strength, in both directions. A big edge in turnovers should be a red flag, and I don’t mean for a replay review.

By the way, the Troy-Western Kentucky game likely is a pass for me since the Trojans are coming off a big win over Marshall, the team that beat Notre Dame a week earlier.

NFL Power Ratings

09/21/2022 / / 6 Comments

As of 9/21/2022

NOTE: These are power rankings, the type used to create betting lines as you would see in a Vegas-style sportsbook. It is intended to be a numerical reflection of the strength of each time at the time of this writing.

It is not intended to be a ranking based on a team’s performance to date. When done correctly, rankings should tell you where a team sits by virtue of what it has already done. Power ratings tell you where they are at the moment. This information will be repeated until every human on earth understands it.

Plenty of fluctuation, due to the fact we are still very early in the season, and I am willing to make some bolder changes than I might be later on.

Rk  Team           Pow
1.  Buffalo        -8
2.  Kansas City    -4.5
3.  Green Bay      -4
3.  Philadelphia   -4
5.  San Francisco  -3.5
5.  Tampa Bay      -3.5
7.  LA Chargers    -3
8.  Baltimore      -2.5
9.  LA Rams        -2
10. Cincinnati     -1.5
10. Denver         -1.5
10. Las Vegas      -1.5
13. Miami          -1
13. Minnesota      -1
13. New Orleans    -1
16. Indianapolis    0
17. Cleveland       1
18. Arizona         1.5
18. Detroit         1.5
18. New England     1.5
21. Jacksonville    2
21. Tennessee       2
23. Dallas          3.5
23. Pittsburgh      3.5
25. NY Giants       4.5
25. Washington      4.5
27. Carolina        5
27. NY Jets         5
29. Atlanta         6
29. Chicago         6
29. Houston         6
32. Seattle         6.5

NFL Power Ratings

09/14/2022 / / 357 Comments

As of 9/13/2022

NOTE: These are power rankings, the type used to create betting lines as you would see in a Vegas-style sportsbook. It is intended to be a numerical reflection of the strength of each time at the time of this writing.

It is not intended to be a ranking based on a team’s performance to date. When done correctly, rankings should tell you where a team sits by virtue of what it has already done. Power ratings tell you where they are at the moment. This information will be repeated until every human on earth understands it.

Rk  Team            Power
1   Buffalo         -8
2   Kansas City     -5.5
3   Baltimore       -4
3   Tampa Bay       -4
5   Denver          -3
5   LA Chargers     -3
5   LA Rams         -3
8   Cincinnati      -2.5
8   Philadelphia    -2.5
8   San Francisco   -2.5
11  Green Bay       -2
11  Minnesota       -2
13  Indianapolis    -1.5
13  Miami           -1.5
15  Las Vegas       -1
16  New Orleans     -0.5
17  New England      0
17  Tennessee        0
19  Cleveland        1
20  Arizona          2.5
20  NY Giants        2.5
22  Detroit          3
22  Pittsburgh       3
22  Washington       3
25  Carolina         3.5
26  Jacksonville     4
27  NY Jets          4.5
28  Chicago          5
28  Dallas           5
28  Seattle          5
31  Atlanta          5.5
31  Houston          5.5

Football on TV (Sept. 10-12)

09/10/2022 / / 265 Comments

All times are PDT, because that’s Vegas time. Times and networks are subject to change, so don’t blame me if you miss kickoff.

College

SATURDAY

Alabama at Texas, 9 a.m., FOX
Arkansas State at Ohio State, 9 a.m., Big Ten Network
Southern Miss at Miami, 9 a.m., ACC Network
South Carolina at Arkansas, 9 a.m., ESPN
Wake Forest at Vanderbilt, 9 a.m., SEC Network
Missouri at Kansas State, 9 a.m., ESPN2
Western Illinois at Minnesota, 9 a.m., Big Ten Network
Duke at Northwestern, 9 a.m., FS1
Ohio at Penn State, 9 a.m., ABC
North Carolina at Georgia State, 9 a.m., ESPNU
UTSA at Army, 9 a.m., CBSSN
Charleston Southern at NC State, 9:30 a.m., ESPN3
South Alabama at Central Michigan, 10 a.m., ESPN+
Virginia Lynchburg at Presbyterian, 10 a.m., ESPN+
Southern Utah at Utah, 10:30 a.m., Pac-12 Network
Bucknell at VMI, 10:30 a.m., ESPN+
Lafayette at Temple, 11 a.m., ESPN+
Western Michigan at Ball State, 11 a.m., ESPN+
Dayton at Youngstown State, 11 a.m., ESPN+
Missouri S&T at Drake, 11 a.m., ESPN3
Marshall at Notre Dame, 11:30 a.m., NBC/Peacock
Morehead State at Montana State, Noon, ESPN+
Furman at Clemson, 12:30 p.m., ACC Network
Appalachian State at Texas A&M, 12:30 p.m., ESPN2
Tennessee at Pitt, 12:30 p.m., ABC
Washington State at Wisconsin, 12:30 p.m., FOX
Kennesaw State at Cincinnati, 12:30 p.m., ESPN+
Colorado at Air Force, 12:30 p.m., CBS
Memphis at Navy, 12:30 p.m., CBSSN
Maryland at Charlotte, 12:30 p.m., Stadium
South Dakota at Montana, 12:30 p.m., ESPN+
North Carolina A&T at North Dakota State, 12:30 p.m., ESPN+
UNLC at Cal, 1 p.m., Pac-12 Networks
Portland State at Washington, 1 p.m., Pac-12 Washington
Northern Colorado at Wyoming, 1 p.m., MW Network
Samford at Georgia, 1 p.m., SEC Network
Akron at Michigan State, 1 p.m., Big Ten Network
Houston at Texas Tech, 1 p.m., FS1
Iowa State at Iowa, 1 p.m., Big Ten Network
Virginia at Illinois, 1 p.m., ESPNU
Indiana State at Purdue, 1 p.m., Big Ten Network
Wagner at Rutgers, 1 p.m., Big Ten Network
Eastern Kentucky at Bowling Green, 1 p.m., ESPN3
Norfolk State at James Madison, 1 p.m., ESPN3
Mississippi Valley State at Austin Peay, 1 p.m., ESPN+
UNI at North Dakota, 1 p.m., ESPN3
East Tennessee State at The Citadel, 1 p.m., ESPN+
South Carolina State at Bethune-Cookman, 1 p.m., ESPN+
Alabama State at UCLA, 2 p.m., Pac-12 Network
San Diego at Cal Poly, 2 p.m., ESPN+
Lehigh at Georgetown, 2 p.m., ESPN+
UIW at Nevada, 2:30 p.m., MW Network
Kansas at West Virginia, 3 p.m., ESPN+
Old Dominion at East Carolina, 3 p.m., ESPN+
Holy Cross at Buffalo, 3 p.m., ESPN+
Robert Morris at Miami (the other one), 3 p.m., ESPN3
Gardner-Webb at Coastal Carolina, 3 p.m., ESPN+
SE Louisiana at Florida Atlantic, 3 p.m., ESPN3
UAB at Liberty, 3 p.m., ESPN+
Elon at Wofford, 3 p.m., ESPN3
Winston-Salem at NC Central, 3 p.m., ESPN+
Louisiana Christian at Stetson, 3 p.m., ESPN3
Sacred Heart at Central Connecticut, 3 p.m., ESPN3
Rhode Island at Bryant, 3 p.m., ESPN+
Kent State at Oklahoma, 4 p.m., ESPN+
Kentucky at Florida, 4 p.m., ESPN
Central Arkansas at Ole Miss, 4 p.m., ESPN+/SEC Network+
Syracuse at UConn, 4 p.m., CBSSN
Western Carolina at Georgia Tech, 4 p.m., ESPN+/ACCNX
UMass at Toledo, 4 p.m., ESPN+
Alcorn State at Tulane, 4 p.m., ESPN+
Lamar at SMU, 4 p.m., ESPN+
Howard at South Florida, 4 p.m., ESPN+
Northern Illinois at Tulsa, 4 p.m., ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Louisiana, 4 p.m., NFL Network
Alabama A&M at Troy, 4 p.m., ESPN3
FIU at Texas State, 4 p.m., ESPN+
Stephen F. Austin at Louisiana Tech, 4 p.m., ESPN3
Jacksonville State at Murray State, 4 p.m., ESPN3
Northern Arizona at Sam Houston, 4 p.m., ESPN+
UC Davis at South Dakota State, 4 p.m., ESPN+
UVA Wise at North Alabama, 4 p.m., ESPN+
Lindenwood at Houston Baptist, 4 p.m., ESPN3
Texas A&M-Commerce at Tennessee Tech, 4 p.m., ESPN+
Chattanooga at Eastern Illinois, 4 p.m., ESPN+
SE Missouri State at Southern Illinois, 4 p.m., ESPN3
USC at Stanford, 4:30 p.m., ABC
Arizona State at Oklahoma State, 4:30 p.m., ESPN2
San Jose State at Auburn, 4:30 p.m., ESPNU
Southern at LSU, 4:30 p.m., SEC Network
Georgia Southern at Nebraska, 4:30 p.m., FS1
Texas Southern at North Texas, 4:30 p.m., ESPN3
McNeese at Rice, 4:30 p.m., ESPN3
Valparaiso at Illinois State, 4:30 p.m., ESPN+
Hawai’i at Michigan, 5 p.m., Big Ten Network
Tarleton at TCU, 5 p.m., ESPN+
Idaho at Indiana, 5 p.m., Big Ten Network
Boston College at Virginia Tech, 5 p.m., ACC Network
Nicholls at UL Monroe, 5 p.m., ESPN3
Prairie View A&M at Abilene Christian, 5 p.m., ESPN+
Eastern Washington at Oregon, 5:30 p.m., Pac-12 Network
New Mexico State at UTEP, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Chadron State at Utah Tech, 6 p.m., ESPN+`
Baylor at BYU, 7:12 p.m., ESPN
Oregon State at Fresno State, 7:30 p.m., CBSSN
Mississippi State at Arizona, 8 p.m., FS1

Source: NCAA.com

NFL

SUNDAY

Saints at Falcons, 10 a.m., Fox
Browns at Panthers, 10 a.m., CBS
49ers at Bears, 10 a.m., Fox
Steelers at Bengals, 10 a.m., CBS
Eagles at Lions, 10 a.m., Fox
Colts at Texans, 10 a.m., CBS
Patriots at Dolphins, 10 a.m., CBS
Ravens at Jets, 10 a.m., CBS
Jaguars at Commanders, 10 a.m., Fox
Giants at Titans, 1:25 p.m., Fox
Chiefs at Cardinals, 1:25 p.m., CBS
Raiders at Chargers, 1:25 p.m., CBS
Packers at Vikings, 1:25 p.m., Fox
Buccaneers at Cowboys, 5:20 p.m., NBC/Universe

MONDAY

Broncos at Seahawks, 5:15 p.m., ESPN/ABC/ESPN2/ESPN Deportes

Source: NFL.com

NFL Power Ratings

09/05/2022 / / 23 Comments

Preseason

NOTE: These are power rankings, the type used to create betting lines as you would see in a Vegas-style sportsbook. It is intended to be a numerical reflection of the strength of each time at the time of this writing.

It is not intended to be a ranking based on a team’s performance to date. When done correctly, rankings should tell you where a team sits by virtue of what it has already done. Power ratings tell you where they are at the moment. This information will be repeated until every human on earth understands it. 

1  Buffalo           -7
2  Kansas City       -6
2  Tampa Bay         -6
4  Green Bay         -3.5
4  LA Chargers       -3.5
4  LA Rams           -3.5
7  Baltimore         -3
7  Cincinnati        -3
7  San Francisco     -3
10 Denver            -2.5
10 Indianapolis      -2.5
12 Dallas            -2
13 Las Vegas         -1.5
14 Philadelphia      -1
15 Miami             -0.5
15 New England       -0.5
15 New Orleans       -0.5
18 Arizona           0
18 Minnesota         0
18 Tennessee         0
21 Pittsburgh        2
22 Cleveland         2.5
23 Carolina          3
23 Washington        3
25 Jacksonville      4.5
26 Chicago           5
26 Detroit           5
26 NY Giants         5
26 Seattle           5
30 NY Jets           5.5
31 Atlanta           7
31 Houston           7

Here’s the key to read these numbers. The number to the left of the team name is its ranking. The number to the right is the estimated point spread against an average NFL team on a neutral field.

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