Category: NFL

NFL Power Ratings

10/12/2022 / / 511 Comments

As of 10/12/2022

NOTE: These are power rankings, the type used to create betting lines as you would see in a Vegas-style sportsbook. It is intended to be a numerical reflection of the strength of each time at the time of this writing.

It is not intended to be a ranking based on a team’s performance to date. When done correctly, rankings should tell you where a team sits by virtue of what it has already done. Power ratings tell you where they are at the moment. This information will be repeated until every human on earth understands it.

Buffalo continues to be far ahead of any other team. That lofty rating will be put to the test as the Bills face No, 2 Kansas City this Sunday.

1	Buffalo		-8
2	Kansas City	-4.5
2	Philadelphia	-4.5
4	San Francisco	-4
5	Baltimore	-3.5
6	Dallas		-3
7	Cincinnati	-2.5
7	Minnesota	-2.5
7	Tampa Bay	-2.5
10	LA Chargers	-2
11	LA Rams		-1
12	Green Bay	0
12	Las Vegas	0
12	New England	0
15	Tennessee	0.5
16	Cleveland	1
16	Denver		1
16	New Orleans	1
19	Arizona		1.5
20	Indianapolis	2
21	Atlanta		2.5
21	NY Giants	2.5
23	Jacksonville	3
23	Washington	3
25	Detroit		3.5
25	NY Jets		3.5
27	Miami		4
28	Carolina	5
28	Chicago		5
28	Houston		5
28	Pittsburgh	5
28	Seattle		5

NFL Power Ratings

09/28/2022 / / 108 Comments

As of 9/28/2022

NOTE: These are power rankings, the type used to create betting lines as you would see in a Vegas-style sportsbook. It is intended to be a numerical reflection of the strength of each time at the time of this writing.

It is not intended to be a ranking based on a team’s performance to date. When done correctly, rankings should tell you where a team sits by virtue of what it has already done. Power ratings tell you where they are at the moment. This information will be repeated until every human on earth understands it.

I feel more confident of my ratings than I have at any point (which should be the case with more games played), but there are still some doubts about certain teams (hello Jacksonville!).

Rk	Team		Pow
1	Buffalo		-7.5
2	Kansas City	-4
2	Philadelphia	-4
4	Green Bay	-3
4	Miami		-3
6	Cincinnati	-2.5
6	LA Rams		-2.5
8	Baltimore	-2
8	San Francisco	-2
10	LA Chargers	-1.5
10	Tampa Bay	-1.5
12	Minnesota	-1
13	Denver		0
13	Indianapolis	0
13	Las Vegas	0
16	Cleveland	1.5
16	Dallas		1.5
16	Tennessee	1.5
19	Jacksonville	2
19	New Orleans	2
21	Detroit		2.5
22	Arizona		3
23	Pittsburgh	3.5
24	Carolina	4
24	NY Giants	4
26	Atlanta		4.5
26	New England	4.5
26	Washington	4.5
29	Chicago		5
30	Seattle		6
31	Houston		6.5
31	NY Jets		6.5

The Least Understood Stat in Football

09/26/2022 / / 244 Comments

Turnovers are good, no? No.

Betting on sports can be counterintuitive in so many ways.

One of these is turnovers and how they affect handicapping a game, especially in football. Most fans think having a plus turnover ratio is a good thing.

And it is a good thing, for the games in which it has already happened. However, looking ahead from a betting perspective, the opposite is usually the case, all else being equal.

Let’s take an current example (as of this writing) in college football. Western Kentucky is at home against Troy, and currently sits as a 6-point favorite.

Both teams are 3-1 against the spread, with the lone loss coming as big favorites against lower-division teams.

It will be the high-flying offense of Western Kentucky against the tough defense of Troy. Who will prevail? I can’t say. (Depending on when you read this, you may already know the answer.)

I can tell you that, if forced to bet this game, I would take the Trojans. Why?

Because Western Kentucky sits at plus-6 in turnover margin, while Troy is at -1. Why does this stat favor Troy? For a couple of reasons.

First of all, some (not all) turnovers are just a matter of luck. Footballs can bounce in funny ways. A talented wide receiver may let a pass bounce off his hands and into the waiting arms of a defender. A fumbled snapped may bounce away from a quarterback… or right back into his gullet.

Second, teams that have been on the wrong end of turnovers are cognizant of it and spend more time working on correcting the problem in practice.

Turnovers sometimes disguise a team’s true strength, in both directions. A big edge in turnovers should be a red flag, and I don’t mean for a replay review.

By the way, the Troy-Western Kentucky game likely is a pass for me since the Trojans are coming off a big win over Marshall, the team that beat Notre Dame a week earlier.

NFL Power Ratings

09/21/2022 / / 6 Comments

As of 9/21/2022

NOTE: These are power rankings, the type used to create betting lines as you would see in a Vegas-style sportsbook. It is intended to be a numerical reflection of the strength of each time at the time of this writing.

It is not intended to be a ranking based on a team’s performance to date. When done correctly, rankings should tell you where a team sits by virtue of what it has already done. Power ratings tell you where they are at the moment. This information will be repeated until every human on earth understands it.

Plenty of fluctuation, due to the fact we are still very early in the season, and I am willing to make some bolder changes than I might be later on.

Rk  Team           Pow
1.  Buffalo        -8
2.  Kansas City    -4.5
3.  Green Bay      -4
3.  Philadelphia   -4
5.  San Francisco  -3.5
5.  Tampa Bay      -3.5
7.  LA Chargers    -3
8.  Baltimore      -2.5
9.  LA Rams        -2
10. Cincinnati     -1.5
10. Denver         -1.5
10. Las Vegas      -1.5
13. Miami          -1
13. Minnesota      -1
13. New Orleans    -1
16. Indianapolis    0
17. Cleveland       1
18. Arizona         1.5
18. Detroit         1.5
18. New England     1.5
21. Jacksonville    2
21. Tennessee       2
23. Dallas          3.5
23. Pittsburgh      3.5
25. NY Giants       4.5
25. Washington      4.5
27. Carolina        5
27. NY Jets         5
29. Atlanta         6
29. Chicago         6
29. Houston         6
32. Seattle         6.5

NFL Power Ratings

09/14/2022 / / 315 Comments

As of 9/13/2022

NOTE: These are power rankings, the type used to create betting lines as you would see in a Vegas-style sportsbook. It is intended to be a numerical reflection of the strength of each time at the time of this writing.

It is not intended to be a ranking based on a team’s performance to date. When done correctly, rankings should tell you where a team sits by virtue of what it has already done. Power ratings tell you where they are at the moment. This information will be repeated until every human on earth understands it.

Rk  Team            Power
1   Buffalo         -8
2   Kansas City     -5.5
3   Baltimore       -4
3   Tampa Bay       -4
5   Denver          -3
5   LA Chargers     -3
5   LA Rams         -3
8   Cincinnati      -2.5
8   Philadelphia    -2.5
8   San Francisco   -2.5
11  Green Bay       -2
11  Minnesota       -2
13  Indianapolis    -1.5
13  Miami           -1.5
15  Las Vegas       -1
16  New Orleans     -0.5
17  New England      0
17  Tennessee        0
19  Cleveland        1
20  Arizona          2.5
20  NY Giants        2.5
22  Detroit          3
22  Pittsburgh       3
22  Washington       3
25  Carolina         3.5
26  Jacksonville     4
27  NY Jets          4.5
28  Chicago          5
28  Dallas           5
28  Seattle          5
31  Atlanta          5.5
31  Houston          5.5

NFL Power Ratings

09/05/2022 / / 20 Comments

Preseason

NOTE: These are power rankings, the type used to create betting lines as you would see in a Vegas-style sportsbook. It is intended to be a numerical reflection of the strength of each time at the time of this writing.

It is not intended to be a ranking based on a team’s performance to date. When done correctly, rankings should tell you where a team sits by virtue of what it has already done. Power ratings tell you where they are at the moment. This information will be repeated until every human on earth understands it. 

1  Buffalo           -7
2  Kansas City       -6
2  Tampa Bay         -6
4  Green Bay         -3.5
4  LA Chargers       -3.5
4  LA Rams           -3.5
7  Baltimore         -3
7  Cincinnati        -3
7  San Francisco     -3
10 Denver            -2.5
10 Indianapolis      -2.5
12 Dallas            -2
13 Las Vegas         -1.5
14 Philadelphia      -1
15 Miami             -0.5
15 New England       -0.5
15 New Orleans       -0.5
18 Arizona           0
18 Minnesota         0
18 Tennessee         0
21 Pittsburgh        2
22 Cleveland         2.5
23 Carolina          3
23 Washington        3
25 Jacksonville      4.5
26 Chicago           5
26 Detroit           5
26 NY Giants         5
26 Seattle           5
30 NY Jets           5.5
31 Atlanta           7
31 Houston           7

Here’s the key to read these numbers. The number to the left of the team name is its ranking. The number to the right is the estimated point spread against an average NFL team on a neutral field.

© 2024

Theme by Anders Noren — Up ↑