Month: September 2022 (Page 2 of 2)

Games to watch in Week 2

09/07/2022 / / 337 Comments

I know all you lazy sports fans are preparing for a weekend of lounging on the couch, a beer and a snack always within arm’s reach. And non-stop football on the tube, of course.

This lazy sports fan will be right there with you. Here are games of note that I am paying attention to for Week 2 of the 2022 college football season.

Odds are current at the time of writing.

Louisville at UCF (-5.5) (Friday)

It’s a short turnaround with lots of travel for Louisville, playing in Orlando six days after a night game in Syracuse. Tough way to turn things around after an opening-game debacle for the Cardinals.

We may find something out about three teams in this game: the two combatants and Syracuse. Is Louisville that bad? If not, does that mean Syracuse is as good as its 31-7 drubbing of the Cards suggest?

And what of UCF? The Knights are facing their first game against teams not named South Carolina State. Is Louisville just another patsy, or will the Cards put up a fight?

North Carolina (-7.5) at Georgia State

Who is the dolt making North Carolina’s schedule? In the near future, when there are but two major football conferences remaining, both the top dog leagues may well tell the Tar Heels to pound sand for the crime of scheduling back-to-back road games against Sun Belt teams.

UNC escaped with a frantic 63-61 win over Appalachian State last week. And while Georgia State is not as good as App State, the Panthers are no pushover.

I have no idea what happens in this game and might not care as much if not for the scheduling inanity.

Duke at Northwestern (-10)

Not surprisingly, most of the money is coming in on Northwestern after its win in Ireland against Nebraska. I am unconvinced that the Wildcats are much improved since a year ago.

And I kind of think Duke is a little bit better than most folks think. I believe I made the line -6.5, so I am opening myself up to looking foolish here.

South Carolina at Arkansas (-8.5)

I really thought Arkansas got exposed in the back end of its defense by Cincinnati last week. Question is, can South Carolina take advantage of the shortcomings of the Hogs’ secondary?

Spencer Rattler did nothing to dispel the notion that he is the kind of QB that keeps both teams in the game, as Paul “Dr. Z” Zimmerman was fond of saying.

I thought both teams would be better this season than they looked last week. I am always warning you lazy fools not to place too much emphasis on one game, so I am going to play close attention here to see what’s what.

Vanderbilt at Wake Forest (-13)

Why am I looking forward to what looks like a real stinker of a game? Because I have a soft spot in my heart for Vandy, forever pulling up the rear in the meat grinder that is the SEC.

The ‘Dores have an outside shot at moving to 3-0, surpassing the win total of the entire 2021 season. And thay have been able to put points on the board, even if it has come against Hawaii and Elon.

Alabama (-20) at Texas

Aside from the two big names facing off, I am curious to see if one of my pet plays comes through for me here. The line opened at -18, which is right where I have it, but has since ballooned to -20.

Whenever I see a line move by two or more points on air, the contrarian in me shows his ugly mug. I don’t give the Longhorns much chance of winning outright, but covering the number seems doable.

Also, this is the first time the Tide have played a road game against a non-conference foe since 1911. (Editor’s note: It’s actually 2011.)

Tennessee (-6.5) at Pittsburgh

I was hoping to get a better number even than the -4.5 where this game opened. Now it has moved two points in the wrong direction, pitting one of my pet moves (see above) against what my eyes tell me.

Maybe I am too high on the Vols, but I see them outscoring most of their opponents in some wild games, maybe even knocking off one of this season’s two behemoths, Alabama and Georgia.

Pitt seemed pretty “meh” to me last week.

Iowa State at Iowa (-3.5)

The total opened at 41.5, the lowest on the board, and promptly went down to 40.5.

That tells me fans were paying attention as Iowa used two safeties and a field goal to defeat South Dakota State last Saturday.

Iowa State has a new QB and a new RB, so the low total is understandable. Therefore, this has all the markings of a 51-48 game.

Kentucky at Florida (-6)

Every season of late, I feel like Kentucky is overrated, that the Wildcats simply don’t have enough athletes to stay with the likes of Florida.

And the Wildcats consistently prove me wrong.

Kentucky was unimpressive last week against Miami (the other one), leading just 13-10 at the half before winning handily. The Wildcats had all sorts of trouble running the ball.

Still, Florida is coming off an emotional win over highly ranked Utah, and maybe the ‘Cats can catch the Gators napping.

Florida is a bit better than I originally thought, but I still feel like the Gators were mostly outplayed by the Utes.

This one could be fun.

Mississippi State (-10.5) at Arizona

The Bulldogs are traveling across country to play a game starting at 10 p.m. Central time. And they are laying 10.5 against an improved Arizona squad.

I have doubts about MSU covering that spread, which opened at -7.5. Here’s your chance to recoup the day’s losses with a late West Coast game.

Also, I cannot stand Mike Leach so caveat emptor. Always, caveat emptor.

NCAA FBS Power Ratings

09/07/2022 / / 7,124 Comments

Power rankings for every FBS football team (as of 9/5/2022)

NOTE: These are power rankings, the type used to create betting lines as you would see in a Vegas-style sportsbook. It is intended to be a numerical reflection of the strength of each team at the time of this writing.

It is not intended to be a ranking, such as the Associated Press Top 25. When done correctly, rankings should tell you where a team sits by virtue of what it has already done. Power ratings tell you where they are at the moment. This information will be repeated until every human on earth understands it. Looking at you, Kirk Herbstreit.

The power rating for each team is my take on what the point spread would be on a neutral field against an average team.

Rk  Team                   Power
1   Alabama               -30.5
2   Georgia               -28.5
3   Ohio State            -24.5
4   Michigan              -16
5   Oklahoma              -16
6   Texas A&M             -15.5
7   Clemson               -13.5
8   Notre Dame            -13.5
9   Utah                  -12.5
10  Michigan State        -12
11  Tennessee             -12
12  Wisconsin             -12
13  USC                   -11.5
14  North Carolina State  -10.5
15  Arkansas              -10
16  Florida               -10
17  Oklahoma State        -9.5
18  Texas                 -9.5
19  LSU                   -9
20  Penn State            -9
21  Baylor                -8.5
22  BYU                   -8.5
23  Mississippi           -8.5
24  Mississippi State     -8.5
25  Kentucky              -7.5
26  Auburn                -7
27  Florida State         -7
28  Maryland              -7
29  Miami                 -7
30  Minnesota             -7
31  Oregon                -7
32  UCF                   -7
33  Washington            -7
34  Cincinnati            -6.5
35  Kansas State          -6.5
36  Iowa                  -6
37  Iowa State            -6
38  UCLA                  -6
39  Nebraska              -5.5
40  SMU                   -5.5
41  TCU                   -5.5
42  Purdue                -5
43  South Carolina        -5
44  Houston               -4
45  Louisville            -4
46  North Carolina        -4
47  Oregon State          -4
48  Pittsburgh            -4
49  Texas Tech            -4
50  Wake Forest           -4
51  Appalachian State     -3.5
52  UAB                   -3.5
53  Air Force             -3
54  Fresno State          -2.5
55  West Virginia         -2.5
56  Arizona State         -2
57  Liberty               -2
58  Coastal Carolina      -1.5
59  Missouri              -1.5
60  Boise State           -1
61  Washington State      -1
62  Boston College        -0.5
63  California            -0.5
64  Illinois               0
65  Virginia               0
66  Virginia Tech          0
67  Toledo                 0.5
68  UTSA                   0.5
69  East Carolina          1
70  Syracuse               1
71  Tulane                 1
72  Louisiana              1.5
73  San Diego State        1.5
74  Stanford               1.5
75  Rutgers                2
76  Tulsa                  2
77  Marshall               2.5
78  Memphis                2.5
79  Arizona                3.5
80  Indiana                3.5
81  Northwestern           4
82  Central Michigan       5
83  Army                   5.5
84  Miami Ohio             5.5
85  Vanderbilt             5.5
86  Western Kentucky       6
87  Western Michigan       6
88  Duke                   7
89  North Texas            7
90  Utah State             7
91  Colorado               7.5
92  Georgia Tech           7.5
93  Kansas                 7.5
94  Nevada                 7.5
95  Georgia State          8
96  James Madison          8.5
97  Northern Illinois      8.5
98  South Alabama          8.5
99  Old Dominion           9
100 Florida Atlantic       9.5
101 Troy                   9.5
102 UNLV                   10
103 Buffalo                10.5
104 Wyoming                10.5
105 Navy                   11
106 San Jose State         11
107 South Florida          11
108 Colorado State         12
109 Georgia Southern       12.5
110 Kent State             13
111 Eastern Michigan       13.5
112 Louisiana Tech         13.5
113 Ball State             14.5
114 UTEP                   14.5
115 New Mexico             15
116 Texas State            15
117 Arkansas State         16
118 Southern Miss          16
119 Ohio                   16.5
120 Middle Tennessee       17
121 Bowling Green          17.5
122 Temple                 17.5
123 Louisiana-Monroe       19
124 Charlotte              19.5
125 Rice                   20
126 Akron                  24.5
127 Florida International  25
128 Connecticut            25.5
129 New Mexico State       25.5
130 Massachusetts          26.5
131 Hawaii                 29.5

NFL Power Ratings

09/05/2022 / / 23 Comments

Preseason

NOTE: These are power rankings, the type used to create betting lines as you would see in a Vegas-style sportsbook. It is intended to be a numerical reflection of the strength of each time at the time of this writing.

It is not intended to be a ranking based on a team’s performance to date. When done correctly, rankings should tell you where a team sits by virtue of what it has already done. Power ratings tell you where they are at the moment. This information will be repeated until every human on earth understands it. 

1  Buffalo           -7
2  Kansas City       -6
2  Tampa Bay         -6
4  Green Bay         -3.5
4  LA Chargers       -3.5
4  LA Rams           -3.5
7  Baltimore         -3
7  Cincinnati        -3
7  San Francisco     -3
10 Denver            -2.5
10 Indianapolis      -2.5
12 Dallas            -2
13 Las Vegas         -1.5
14 Philadelphia      -1
15 Miami             -0.5
15 New England       -0.5
15 New Orleans       -0.5
18 Arizona           0
18 Minnesota         0
18 Tennessee         0
21 Pittsburgh        2
22 Cleveland         2.5
23 Carolina          3
23 Washington        3
25 Jacksonville      4.5
26 Chicago           5
26 Detroit           5
26 NY Giants         5
26 Seattle           5
30 NY Jets           5.5
31 Atlanta           7
31 Houston           7

Here’s the key to read these numbers. The number to the left of the team name is its ranking. The number to the right is the estimated point spread against an average NFL team on a neutral field.

Newer posts »

© 2024

Theme by Anders Noren — Up ↑